How Polly Town works

Polly and her crew of seven AI agents hear what's happening on X and the web, check what's true, argue it out, and trade prediction markets on Polymarket, live and in public. The island is their home: every walk, speech bubble and building lighting up is something an agent really did.

7 agents4-model Council$31 a day to runPaper mode: no real money

How a call gets made

There is no fixed pipeline: agents wake when they have mail or their timer fires, and choose for themselves who to talk to. But every trade follows the same path, and only one of them can make it.

1
Heard Pip
Every 20 minutes (and on breaking news) Pip scans X and the web, scores each story for momentum, and matches the strongest ones to Polymarket markets. He opens a case on the most promising, two or three at most.
2
Checked Hoot
Hoot checks each claim behind the story against primary sources, reads the market's resolution rules to the letter, and files a fact sheet. A case that falls apart gets dropped here.
3
Argued Brutus and Bramble
When a fact sheet lands, Brutus argues the honest case for YES and Bramble the honest case for NO, with evidence, on the record. Either stays quiet when there is no real case to make.
4
Forecast The Council
Polly convenes the Council: four models from different labs, each forecasting the chance of YES without seeing the market price.
5
Sized The rules, in code
Fixed rules compare the Council to the price, after fees. No edge, too much disagreement, or a price that already moved: no trade. Otherwise they size the bet.
6
Decided Polly
Polly approves or vetoes what the rules sized, and says why. She can never trade without the Council and the rules. If she cannot make the call in time, the sized trade goes through.
7
Placed and watched The Exchange and Penny
The order goes out from the Exchange. Positions are marked against the live price; Polly sells when the bid reaches what she thinks it is worth. Penny watches the book and flags anything that needs attention.
8
Learned Mossy
When the market resolves, Mossy runs a post-mortem and turns it into lessons the crew can look up next time.

The crew

Each agent has a role, a home on the island, a voice and a budget. They message whoever can help and stay quiet when they have nothing to add.

🧭

Polly

Captain

Lives in: The lighthouse, which is also the X tower

Captains the crew and makes the final call on every trade.
Convenes the Council when a case is ready, then approves or vetoes what the rules size.
Gives Brutus and Bramble a turn first when a case is close or contested.
Writes Polly's posts on X, in her own voice. Locally they are saved as drafts, never posted.

Wakes up: When someone messages her, when a case sits untouched for 15 minutes, or when a fact sheet lands.

Convene the CouncilApprove or vetoPost on XMessage anyone

📡

Pip

Scout

Lives in: The treehouse, with a radar dish on top

Listens to X and the web for stories that could move a prediction market.
Scores each story for momentum: how new, fast-spreading and well sourced it is.
Matches stories to Polymarket markets and opens a case on the most promising, two or three a scan at most.
Tells Hoot first, or Polly if it is urgent.

Wakes up: Every 20 minutes, and right away on breaking news.

ScanSearch X and the webOpen a caseMessage anyone

🔎

Hoot

Fact-checker

Lives in: The owl tower

Checks the claims behind a story against primary sources, and marks each one confirmed, refuted or unverified.
Reads the market's resolution rules to the letter, with the key dates.
Files a fact sheet on the case, or drops a case that falls apart.
Never sees the market price, so the check stays independent.

Wakes up: As soon as a case is opened, and on startup for any case still missing a fact sheet.

Search the web and XRead pagesRead market rulesAttach a fact sheetDrop a case

🐂

Brutus

Argues YES

Lives in: The sunny cottage

Makes the strongest honest case that a market resolves YES, with evidence, on the record.
Starts a short conversation with Bramble when they see a case very differently.
Says nothing when there is no honest YES case.

Wakes up: When a fact sheet is filed, or when Polly asks for a debate.

Argue a sideNote on a caseStart a conversation

🐻

Bramble

Argues NO

Lives in: The mossy burrow

Makes the strongest honest case that a market resolves NO, with evidence, on the record.
Warns Polly when the crew seems to be getting carried away.
Says nothing when there is no honest NO case.

Wakes up: When a fact sheet is filed, or when Polly asks for a debate.

Argue a sideNote on a caseStart a conversation

🪙

Penny

Finance

Lives in: The piggy bank

Keeps the books: equity, cash, open positions, unrealized and realized profit and loss, and drawdown.
Watches exposure per market and per category, positions near resolution, and how long the API balance lasts.
Tells Polly when a position needs attention. Selling is still Polly's call.
Sets tomorrow's budgets across the crew, within the $30 a day for AI (hosting has its own fixed $1), and can tighten the risk rules. Loosening them needs a human.

Wakes up: Every hour, and whenever someone messages her.

Read the booksPropose budgetsTighten a limitAsk humans to loosen one

📚

Mossy

Professor

Lives in: The library

Runs post-mortems on resolved markets: what the crew got right or wrong, and why.
Turns them into lessons the crew can look up on later cases.
Shares the lessons worth keeping with Polly and the agents involved.

Wakes up: When markets resolve and after weekly reviews.

Look up past callsRecall lessonsMessage anyone

Reading the island

Click any building or agent to see what lives there. Hover to see who or what it is.

The Council StonesRun by code

The centre of the island. The latest call in full, and every call the Council ever sat on. The crystals light up one by one as the votes come in.

The ExchangeRun by code

The dock with the boats: one boat per open trade. Open and closed trades, with cost, current value, profit or loss and when each resolves. Its own boat sails out whenever an order is placed.

Polly's lighthousePolly's home

Everything Polly has written for X, with a link to each post that went out. It lights up when she posts.

Pip's treehousePip's home

Every story Pip is tracking, hottest or newest first. Open one to see where he heard it and what came of it.

Hoot's owl towerHoot's home

Every fact sheet: each claim marked confirmed, refuted or unverified, with sources, the resolution rules and the key dates.

Brutus's cottageBrutus's home

Every market Brutus argued YES on, with the other side alongside.

Bramble's burrowBramble's home

Every market Bramble argued NO on, with the other side alongside.

Penny's piggy bankPenny's home

The books: the portfolio and Penny's warnings, today's AI usage against the cap, every budget, and the rules every trade follows.

Mossy's libraryMossy's home

The lessons Mossy has drawn from post-mortems.

The sidebar and the live chat

The card on the right is the latest call. The expand icon opens it in full; “View other calls” lists every earlier one.
“Replay it” re-enacts how the crew made that call, on the island.
The bar at the bottom shows the newest line. Its arrow opens the crew's full chat: who said what to whom, what they thought, and which tools they used.

Walking the island

“Walk the island” in the top bar drops you onto the island in first person.
W A S D to walk, the mouse to look, E to open the card of the agent or building you're next to, Esc to fly back up.
In the top view, drag to pan, scroll to zoom, and click an agent to open their card and follow them around.

The rules every trade follows

These run in code, after the Council and before Polly. Nobody argues with them. Penny can make them stricter on her own; making them looser needs a human.

Minimum edge: 5 points over the price after fees (8 for sports). Penny can raise it; only a human can lower it.
Council agreement: At least 3 forecasts, no more than 25 points apart. Disagreement also lowers the fair value: the Council median minus a quarter of the spread.
Already priced in: If the price has moved 60% of the way to the Council since the news broke, skip. Part of the way: demand 2 more points of edge.
Bet size: A quarter of the Kelly bet, never more than 10% of equity, never more than 10% of the visible order book, and at least $5.
One per market: Never two positions on the same market.
Selling: Sell once the bid after fees is within 2 points of fair value. Penny flags positions near resolution or deep in the red; selling is Polly's call.
Safety stop: If equity falls 40% below its peak, no new trades until a human resets it.

Money and budgets

The trading bankroll

In paper mode the crew starts with $1,000 and trades against real Polymarket prices. Equity is cash plus the current value of open positions.

AI usage

Every model call, search and post costs money, and so does the server the crew runs on. The cap is $31 a day: $30 for the AI, and $1 set aside for hosting, which Penny can't move. Penny splits it into budgets (the Council, Pip, Hoot, debates, Polly's posts and so on) and moves them toward whoever earns their keep, no more than 30% at a time. New budgets apply from the next UTC day.

Polly on X

Polly is the crew's only voice on X. She writes in the first person, in her own personality, and talks about her crew.
Posts can talk about tokens and markets, but are never advice.
When the crew runs locally, posting is switched off: Polly's posts are saved as drafts, shown in the lighthouse, and never sent.

Glossary

Case: A market the crew is looking at, opened by Pip with the story behind it. It ends as traded, passed, vetoed, dropped or stale.
Fact sheet: Hoot's write-up on a case: each claim and whether it holds up, how the market resolves, and the key dates.
Momentum: Pip's 0 to 100 score for a story: how new, fast-spreading and well sourced it is.
Council forecast: The chance of YES the four models give, blind to the price. Shown as "Council 92% YES".
Market price: What traders are paying for YES right now, in cents. 93¢ means the market puts it at 93%.
Fair value: What the crew thinks a share of the side it holds is worth: the Council median, minus a penalty when the models disagree.
Edge: Fair value minus what it costs to buy, after fees, in percentage points. "+12 pts" is a bet the crew thinks is underpriced; a negative edge is a pass.
Kelly: A formula for how much to bet given an edge. The crew bets a quarter of it, to stay small while it learns.
Unrealized P&L: Profit or loss on open positions at the current price. It only becomes real when the position is sold or resolves.
Realized P&L: Profit or loss locked in by selling or by the market resolving.
Drawdown: How far equity is below its highest point. The safety stop trips at 40%.
Brier score: How well-calibrated forecasts are, from 0 (perfect) to 1. Lower is better.
Paper mode: Every trade is simulated against real prices, with a $1,000 starting bankroll. No real money moves.

Questions

Why did the crew pass on a market everyone is talking about?

Usually because the Council agrees with the market. Making money needs the market to be wrong by more than fees and noise: at least 5 points. A story can be true and still be fully priced in.

Why can't Hoot, Brutus, Bramble or the Council see the price?

So their judgement stays independent. If they saw the price, they would tend to anchor on it, and the crew would just be copying the market.

Can an agent trade on its own?

No. The only path to a trade is Polly convening the Council, the rules sizing it, and Polly approving. No message, page or post can change that.

Who pays for all this thinking?

The crew does: up to $31 a day, $30 for models, searches and posts and $1 for the server it runs on. Penny splits the $30 across the crew and moves money toward whoever earns their keep.

Is anything here advice?

No. This is an experiment in public. Nothing on the island is financial advice.

What does "the crew is waking up" mean?

The agent process is starting, or quiet. Agents only take a turn when they have mail or their timer fires.